The magazine of the North Carolina Center for Voter Education • Saturday May 19, 2012

N.C. GOP Faces Fickle Independents

By Bryan Warner
Published: Mar. 4, 2011

RALEIGH - "I don't belong to any organized political party -- I’m a Democrat," Will Rogers once famously quipped.

For a rising number of North Carolina voters, the first part of Rogers' sentiment is literally true, in that the fastest-growing party affiliation among state voters is no party at all.

That trend may only increase in years ahead. An analysis of data from the State Board of Elections shows that of the 38,000 16- and 17-year-olds who "pre-registered" to vote in 2010, 39 percent opted to register as unaffiliated, outpacing Republican (31 percent) or Democratic (29 percent) identification.

Unaffiliated voters, making up about 24 percent of the North Carolina electorate, were a key part of a Republican sweep in 2010 that saw the GOP take the reins of the N.C. General Assembly for the first time since the late 1800s.

A new poll from the N.C. Center for Voter Education shows that 62 percent of unaffiliated voters think the country is on the wrong track. That feeling was likely a significant reason why independents supported Republicans last year, since at the time Democrats were in full control of state and federal government and thus bore the brunt of voter frustration.

However, independent voters haven’t given the GOP a wildly enthusiastic mandate. The same poll finds that 44 percent of unaffiliated voters are satisfied with last year’s election results and 42 percent are unsatisfied.

In the wake of November's vote, Republicans now share credit and blame with Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue for North Carolina's economic fortunes, which is by far the most important issue weighing on voters -- especially those who count themselves among the independent ranks.

Yet the legislative GOP finds itself in a tricky position of also having to please pro-business Republicans, small-government tea partiers and social conservatives. This latter group sees the shift in legislative power as a golden opportunity to push its agenda that includes, among other items, an amendment to the state constitution that would ban gay marriage.

Having such an amendment on the 2012 ballot might drive socially conservative voters to the polls, which could help Republicans especially if they find themselves with a presidential nominee who, like Sen. John McCain in 2008, doesn't electrify the party's base.

On the other hand, Republicans could lose the support of independent voters if the GOP-controlled legislature is perceived as putting divisive social issues ahead of fiscal matters at a time when unemployment in North Carolina hovers between 9-10 percent.

Recent data from Public Policy Polling (PPP) finds that 64 percent of independent voters favor some sort of official recognition for same-sex couples. Among voters under the age of 30, 67 percent favor either marriage rights or civil unions.

However, 54 percent of senior voters -- a powerful force at the ballot box -- oppose any such recognition. As such, a Republican-backed gay-marriage ban might give the GOP a short-term boost among older voters, at the expense of long-term support from the rising generation of citizens and a growing block of independents.

"This is one of those things where the GOP has to decide whether it's willing to sacrifice some of the goals of its caucus to have a shot at staying in power for more than two years," PPP pollster Tom Jensen wrote in his analysis of the data.

Democrats, including President Barack Obama, have struggled with placating their base on the left, while trying to hold the center and court unaffiliated voters. On Jones Street, legislative Republicans now find themselves challenged with the same juggling act as they try to forge a majority to last in 2012 and beyond.